14,585 Active Listings Signal Austin Housing Supply Trends to Watch in March 2026

14,585 Active Listings Signal Austin

Housing Supply Trends to Watch in March 2026

Austin's housing market is sitting on more inventory than it has seen in years, and that means the window of opportunity for buyers may be wider right now than it has been in a long time.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 23, 2026.

When people talk about the austin real estate market, they are often looking for one number to tell them which way things are heading. But the full picture is always more nuanced, and today's data gives us plenty to work with. As of March 23, 2026, there are 14,585 active residential listings across the greater Austin area. That is 6.5% more than this same week in 2025, and it sits well below the all-time peak of 18,146 active listings recorded on June 30, 2025. The direction of inventory matters just as much as the raw number, and right now the market is holding a level of supply that clearly favors buyers who are ready to negotiate.

One of the most telling data points in today's austin market update is the price reduction rate. Across all 14,585 active listings, 46.4% have experienced at least one price cut. That means nearly half of all sellers have already adjusted their expectations downward. In cities like Lockhart, the rate climbs to 60.5%. Liberty Hill comes in at 59%, and Hutto is at 57.9%. Even within the City of Austin proper, 40.7% of active listings have been reduced. For buyers, this is a clear sign that negotiating room exists throughout the metro. For sellers, it is a reminder that pricing correctly from day one is more important than ever.

Of the 14,585 total active listings, 10,814 are resale homes and 3,771 are new construction. The difference in how these two segments are performing is notable. The Activity Index for new construction sits at 33.16%, which places that segment in the Expansion phase, meaning strong demand and rising absorption. Resale, by contrast, has an Activity Index of 21.01%, which lands squarely in the Softening phase. Softening means slower sales and rising inventory relative to demand. For buyers, resale homes in this market represent some of the best negotiating opportunities available right now. For agents representing sellers of existing homes, that data is a call to action on pricing and presentation strategy.

The Months of Inventory figure gives us another useful lens. The overall market is sitting at 5.18 months, up from 4.84 a year ago. That 6.9% increase continues a trend that has been building for the past two years. The austin housing forecast becomes clearer when you look at how this figure has changed over a two-year window. Compared to March 2024, the Austin metro has seen a 42.4% increase in Months of Inventory. Some individual markets are feeling this even more sharply. Hutto has seen a 320.7% increase over the same two-year stretch, moving from 1.23 months of inventory to 5.18. Manor has more than doubled. These are meaningful shifts that reflect how the composition of the market has changed since the post-pandemic peak.

Pending listings, however, are giving us a demand signal worth paying attention to. There are currently 4,748 pending transactions, which is 8.4% more than the 4,379 recorded at this point in 2025. That year-over-year improvement suggests that buyers are stepping off the sidelines, even if the overall pace of the market remains measured. The New Listing to Pending Ratio for March came in at 0.62, which means that for every 100 new listings that came to market, only 62 went under contract. The 25-year average for this ratio is 0.82. The gap between where we are and where the historical average sits tells you that supply is still outpacing demand in a meaningful way, even with pending sales improving.

Pricing continues to reflect the weight of excess inventory. The median sold price for March 2026 is $440,250, which is up 1.2% from February but down slightly compared to a year ago. From the peak median price of $550,000 recorded in May 2022, the market is now off by nearly 20%. The average sold price this month came in at $590,145, down 13.46% from its own peak of $681,939 in May 2022. When you look at the broader price trend data, the bottom 25th percentile of homes has seen prices decline 0.60% year over year, while the top 25th percentile has seen a 1.60% decline. The cost per square foot has dropped more sharply across both segments, suggesting that buyers today are getting more home for their dollar than they were a year ago.

The Absorption Rate, which measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract in a given period, is currently at 17.50%. The historical average is 31.49%. That gap is significant. It tells you that inventory is not being cleared quickly, and that homes are sitting longer on average before finding a buyer. This is directly connected to the Market Flow Score, which is another composite measure of how efficiently the market is moving. That score today is 4.16 on a scale of zero to ten. The historical average is 6.57. A score this far below average confirms that the market is absorbing inventory slowly, and that the overall momentum of austin housing activity is subdued relative to what we have seen in stronger years.

Looking at city-level price trends, only 8 out of 30 tracked cities are showing median sold price gains year over year, while 22 are showing declines. Wimberley is a notable outlier on the positive side, with an 18% year-over-year gain. Burnet is up 15.1%. On the other end, Lockhart has declined 16.7% year over year. This city-by-city disparity is an important reminder that the austin real estate forecast is not a single story. Where a property sits within the metro matters a great deal when it comes to current pricing and future trajectory.

The Home Value Index data offers additional context. Of the 30 cities tracked, 17 or 56.7% are currently classified as overvalued relative to their inflation-adjusted 2020 baseline. Thirteen cities are considered fairly valued, and one, Lockhart, is classified as undervalued. This means that in much of the metro, prices have not corrected fully to what historical appreciation trends would suggest is fair value. Buyers entering the market today should be aware of where the city they are targeting falls on that spectrum.

For real estate agents working in this market, the data this week reinforces a few core principles. Inventory is elevated, price reductions are widespread, and the pace of absorption is slow. Sellers who are priced right are still getting offers, and pending sales are climbing year over year. The market is moving, but it is rewarding preparation and patience on both sides. Agents who can translate this data clearly for their clients are the ones who will stand out.

The overall austin real estate forecast for the months ahead will depend heavily on whether the improvement in pending sales continues to build momentum. If demand strengthens through the spring selling season, inventory levels could start to tighten. If new listings continue to outpace contracts at the current rate, inventory will stay elevated and buyer leverage will remain strong. Either way, the data today paints a picture of a market in transition, one that is rebalancing from extraordinary extremes toward something closer to a historical norm.

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FAQ

What is Months of Inventory and what does Austin's number mean for buyers?

Months of Inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell all currently active listings if no new homes came to market, based on the current pace of sales. It is calculated by dividing the number of active listings by the number of homes sold per month. In a balanced market, a figure between five and six months is generally considered neutral, meaning neither buyers nor sellers hold a significant advantage. Austin's current Months of Inventory stands at 5.18, which is up 6.9% from 4.84 at this same point in 2025, and up a substantial 42.4% compared to March 2024. For buyers, this means there is more selection available than there has been in several years, more time to evaluate options, and more room to negotiate on price and terms. For sellers, it means that competition is real and that pricing discipline is essential to attracting offers in a reasonable timeframe.

Are Austin new construction homes selling faster than resale homes?

Yes, and the difference is notable when you look at the Activity Index data for March 2026. New construction in the Austin market is registering an Activity Index of 33.16%, which places it in the Expansion phase, a zone characterized by strong demand and healthy absorption relative to supply. Resale homes, by contrast, are sitting at an Activity Index of 21.01%, which falls squarely in the Softening phase, a range associated with slower sales velocity and rising inventory pressure. This gap helps explain why builders have maintained more pricing stability than many resale sellers. If you are a buyer considering new construction, you should expect less negotiating leverage than you would find in the resale segment. If you are a resale seller, understanding that your competition is not just other resale homes but also new construction products in Expansion territory is critical context for your pricing and marketing strategy.

Which Austin suburbs have the best value for homebuyers right now?

Value is always relative to what a buyer prioritizes, but the data today points to several markets worth examining closely. Cedar Park has a Months of Inventory of only 2.90, suggesting it is moving faster than most of the metro, but its Home Value Index shows it is fairly valued relative to its 2020 baseline, which means prices there are more grounded in fundamentals. Round Rock is carrying 3.99 months of inventory and is also classified as fairly valued with a median in the high $300s. Pflugerville offers similar dynamics with 3.86 months of inventory and a median sold price around $383,000, and it too carries a fairly valued designation. For buyers looking for more pricing correction and broader selection, markets like San Marcos at 7.22 months of inventory and Hutto at 5.18 months offer more negotiating room, though buyers should note that several of these outer-market cities have also seen the sharpest inventory increases over the past two years, which is a signal that demand has softened more meaningfully there.

What is the absorption rate in Austin and why does it matter?

The Absorption Rate measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract within a given month, and it is one of the most direct indicators of how well supply and demand are matched at any given moment. A rate above 30% historically signals a seller's market where demand is strong and inventory clears quickly. A rate below 20% tends to indicate a buyer-favored market where supply is outpacing demand and homes are sitting longer. Austin's current Absorption Rate is 17.50%, compared to a historical average of 31.49%. That gap of nearly 14 percentage points is substantial and tells us that the market is absorbing new inventory at a pace well below its long-term norm. For buyers, a low absorption rate means more time to make decisions without fear of being outbid immediately. For sellers and agents, it is a signal that strategic pricing and strong marketing are not optional in this environment. Watching this number trend upward over the coming months would be one of the clearest early signs that market conditions are beginning to tighten again.

How does the Austin housing market compare to the national average?

Direct national comparisons require some caution because Austin experienced one of the most dramatic price run-ups and subsequent corrections of any major metro in the country. At its peak in May 2022, the median sold price in Austin reached $550,000. Today it stands at $440,250, a decline of nearly 20% from that peak. Most national markets did not experience a correction of that magnitude. Austin's 5.18 months of inventory is elevated compared to many markets across the country that are still supply-constrained, which is a meaningful distinction when evaluating buyer leverage. The city's Activity Index for resale homes at 21.01% places it in Softening territory, while many other metros remain closer to equilibrium or expansion. The austin housing forecast, when viewed through a national lens, reflects a market that is still working through the aftermath of an outsized cycle. For long-term investors, the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.696% for the Austin metro remains competitive, and the market projection data suggests that even from today's corrected levels, a return to peak pricing could occur by early 2031 if historical appreciation rates hold.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

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